There’s very little doubt that the Montreal Canadiens have enjoyed a much better than expected season. Sitting in the wild card places for much of the season, the Habs were expected to be battling for draft lottery odds at this point in the season; instead, they’re in the conversation for odds to win the Eastern Conference in the playoffs.
On paper, this is not a playoff-ready team as there are simply too many glaring weaknesses up and down the lines. But thanks to the defence pulling together both without Shea Weber and after his return, Carey Price putting in a season worthy of a Vezina Trophy nomination, and plenty of depth scoring, this team has proven that it all comes down to the performances on the night.
However, there’s still a long way to go in the season, and we are yet to realise the repercussions of the trade deadline fully. So, the question remains: what are the odds that the Montreal Canadiens will make it to the playoffs?
A battle raging in the east
At the 67-game mark, there appeared to be one Metropolitan place and two wild card places available in the Eastern Conference but five teams – four from the Metropolitan Division – vying for those places. The Carolina Hurricanes sat in the third divisional slot while the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens occupied the wild card places. The Columbus Blue Jackets and Philadelphia Flyers were in hot pursuit.
The ESPN playoff chances table at the time foresaw the Habs edging the Blue Jackets and Flyers to land the final wild card place, giving Montreal a 75% chance to Columbus’ 61% and Philadelphia’s 7.8% chance. This is most likely down to the Flyers still being seven points out at the time as well as the Blue Jackets not putting together a decent run of games yet.
However, the experts who create the odds for the best NHL sportsbooks see the race as much closer. In the odds to win the Eastern Conference, they are pretty certain of the top seven contenders being the Lightning, Bruins, Maple Leafs, Capitals, Islanders, Penguins, and Hurricanes. With only one place left behind those seven, the Canadiens are set at 15/1, as are the Blue Jackets, while the Flyers trail at 30/1. It’s going to be a tight race to the finish, so perhaps it’s best to look at the final set of games for each team.
It’s a very tough end to the season for Montreal
The end to the Montreal Canadiens schedule does not inspire much hope in an unexpected playoff berth this season. In their last ten games, the Habs have five games on the road, five games against teams currently in divisional playoff places, and three against teams that could still be battling for a place in the playoffs: the Flyers, Hurricanes, and Blue Jackets. Those last ten games could realistically see the Habs yield a 2-6-2 record with the Canadian club not set to be the favourite in many of the contests.
Of the Canadiens, Flyers, and Blue Jackets, Columbus looks to have the easiest final ten games. Still adjusting to the monster trades around the deadline and effectively going all-in on this season, the Blue Jackets’ form is expected to turn and vault them into a wild card place. The Flyers are riding a tsunami of momentum which saw them go 17-4-2 from 10 January to 3 March – a record that was second only to the Bolts over that timeframe.
Montreal’s fate is in their own hands; if the Canadiens can beat the Flyers, Hurricanes, and Blue Jackets while defeating teams outside of the playoffs scrap and maybe stealing a point or two at the big teams over the last ten games, they’ll be right in the mix. However, the strength of the Blue Jackets and surge of the Flyers look to be too much for the Habs to fight off as it stands.